Friday, April 15, 2011


We got two more who bit the dust last Wednesday and so Redemption Island is getting a bit crowded. Lets break it down as we determine who currently is the favorite to win the million bucks.

1. Boston Rob: Rob will hold the top spot until he either wins or is voted out. If he gets to end and doesnt win, it will be the biggest Survivor injustice ever. And it wouldnt be close for second. He is working his way through the Zapatera's and either friendly/physical Mike or arch-nemesis Matt will be gone next week. He also still has the hidden idol which is huge.

2. Natalie: Again Natalie is right behind Rob as she clearly is his Amber this season in a strategic sense. She confided to him about Ashley being deceitful and that earned big time trust there. Like I have discussed before, Natalie will win if Rob creates a bitter jury intent on not rewarding him.

3. Grant: Its almost a foregone conclusion that Rob will ditch Grant first when they get to the final six and surely Grant has to be realizing this. Look for a battle to soon emerge there behind the scenes with the winner likely earning the million bucks.

4. Andrea: She right now is lying in the weeds and could win by default. Her move last week to vote out Rob was big in earning trust and so she may not get attention until its too late.

5. Julie: The only Zapatera remaining in the game who could win in my mind is Julie and she has a chance to pick up the pieces after the inevitable Ometepe division. I have been her fan as a longshot all season and I am not getting off that train now.

6. Ashley: Rob is annoyed at her and thats a not a good thing. She has done nothing to deserve the million.

7. Ralph: I think Steve goes next but Ralph should soon follow. Sorry I just cant see a situation where he wins the dough.

8. Steve: He has been disappointing and sitting out the last immunity challenge tells me he has checked out mentally. He goes to battle against Phillip this week and so he likely will seal his fate there.

9. Phillip: How crazy would it be if Phillip actually won? If Rob pisses off enough people you never know. Yeah right it will never happen.

10. Matt: As per my rules, those on Redemption Island go to the back of the rankings order and Matt is the favorite of the three that are there for the fact that he cant seem to lose. If he gets back into the game again and makes the final, is it even ethical to give him the million dollars after being voted out twice? Thats a debate for the future.

11. Mike: I have a sneaky feeling that Mike and David are toast this week but if he can get back in the game, he shoots right up to the top due to all of the reasons I have noted all season.

12. David: One more week of David and thats it. He wont win at Redemption Island.

Thats how I see it. As always would love to hear what you think of this.

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