We are merged and Matt was once again sent on his way to Redemption Island where he faces even longer odds of getting back into the game. With 11 people left in the merged portion, lets try and break down who is likely to be voted out tomorrow.
Ometepe Tribe: Even though we are merged, I thought it would be easier to break things down based on tribal lines which I think are in firm play this week. Despite the previews showing Grant chatting it up with the Zapatera's, he would be insane to even think about tossing away the 6-5 advantage they have over them. For a guy who seems like he is with it, I think this is just false mesages being sent by the show. So as far as I am concerned, the Ometepe six will stay together at least through this vote so they than have a 6-4 advantage and next time around have the option of cutting Phillip loose without losing their numbers. Ultimately you got to be thinking that they will focus their votes on Mike or Steve with an emphasis on the former. The tricky thing here is that the second hidden immunity idol will be put back into play for this week and so if Mike finds it and they vote for him, than Ometep could be in trouble. Ometepe cant split the votes obviously so they have to hope they pick the right person and I think they will choose to kick Mike off since David and Julie are not seen as threats yet and I dont think they take Ralph seriously with his dead brain.
Zapatera: Meanwhile at Zapatera, the only card they can play really is to grab one of the Ometepe's and force a tie but again who on Ometepe would go for that when they have a guaranteed advantage? Not going to happen. So the next best thing is to find the hidden immunity idol and play it on who they think Ometepe is aiming for. If they are correct and than throw their votes on Grant, than its a brand new game. I seriously doubt they will aim at Rob and now that they already went to Grant, dont be surprised if they go after one of the girls which Rob would never guess happening. They face a very uphill battle here but with some luck they can turn this around and change the game.
In the end I think Mike goes home followed by a close second with Steve. Ometepe will maintain their advantage and likely use it to wipe out Zapatera and fight it out amongst the six of them. As always check back here for more on this tomorrow. The full analysis and wrapup will be posted after the show.