Saturday, February 20, 2010

Updated Survivor Heroes VS. Villains Odds Of Winning

Two survivors have bit the dust, 18 more left to via for the million. Lets break down the current odds of winning for each remaining player.


Rupert (12-1): Rupert obviously always has the likeability factor working for him and he seems to be in good footing with the Heroes tribe which should entail a long stay in the game. One of the stronger Heroes picks.

James (40-1): James has the brute strength to hang around awhile due to his use in challenges but he has little to no people skills needed to sway a jury to get votes in the end. Smarts are also lacking as he still is looked at as the buffoon who failed to play not one but two hidden immunity idols.

Amanda (22-1): Amanda is the sweet, pretty player who always gets overlooked.....UNTIL NOW! The word is out in her tribe about her weakness but she once again has aligned herself with the right people. An uneasy truce with Cirie is currently in place but there is no doubt in my mind Cirie will cut her throat at a moment's notice. Still she is resourceful and could get votes due to a "third times the charm" ideal.

Cirie (30-1): Cirie is another one who the word is out on. Tom correctly pegged her as an immediate threat who needed to be eliminated due to her cunning scheming. She does have a knack for making the right move however so she cant be discounted totally but I doubt it.

Tom (70-1): Stephenie's elimination was the death knell to Tom unfortunately. One of the most likable players in Survivor history, he has no leg to stand on right now and will almost certainly be the next Hero voted out. A tribe switch is the only thing that will save him right now.

JT (10-1): If he hadn't already won a million dollars, JT would be an even bigger threat to win it all. A very well-liked, well-respected player, JT is going all-in so far in his quest for another victory. Has formed a strong 5 person alliance and can use his athletic ability to stay strong in challenges upon the merge.

Colby (30-1): Just like Tom, Colby is on the outside looking in when it comes to the big Hero alliance. I am certain Tom will go next but once that occurs, the Colbster will be in serious trouble. Always resourceful however, Colby has the ability to wriggle out of trouble and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him jump tribes if he makes the merge as he is totally disgusted with his current team. Needs the millions dollars to validate his standing as one of the best ever.

Candice (50-1): Candice seems like she has no clue what she is doing and is almost like she is running around without a head. She will be the sacrificial lamb once the Big Five gets rid of Colby and Tom. If she makes the merge she will stick around awhile and her odds will certainly improve. In fact she will be forgotten a bit in a merge due to her low-key personality so she would definitely be in the mix at that point. Just don’t see her getting that far.


Boston Rob (7-1): Boston Rob is truly a GREAT Survivor player. The way he carries a team literally on his back is second to none. I am not a fan of his antics sometimes but he has the respect and attention of all the villains outside of Russell (who I think deep down respects him). Rob knows the game inside and out and is a major force to be reckoned with. Ultimately a brewing battle between Russell and he will decide if he gets to the end and wins the million he deserves.

Danielle DiLorenzo (15-1): Danielle is quietly a very strong player. She is extremely athletic and has a good mind for the game that will ensure she sticks around for awhile. She knows how to get to the end of the game and her alliance with Russell could help her get there where she would have an excellent chance to win. As a previous runner-up, Danielle has a chance to get rewarded the second time around, especially if she goes to the end with Russell in that juries don’t take a liking to the "Evil One."

Sandra Diaz-Twine (10-1): Sandra quietly is one of the best players ever with a million dollar sum in her bank account to prove it. The only thing that could ever hold her back is a fiery temper but that didn’t hurt her in Pearl Islands. Her closeness with Boston Rob is a plus and if she survives a showdown with Rob against Russell, than she has a great chance to become the first two-time winner in Survivor history. Always seemingly under the radar despite her lack of patience, Sandra is a live threat.

Parvati Shallow (5-1): Either you love her or hate her but there is no denying the fact that Parvati has got plenty of game. Already a winner, she has a leg up on the competition due to her alliance with Russell. I almost view her as a female version of him and she has no problem stabbing anyone in the back so she could get ahead. A final with her, Russell, and Danielle would give her a 50/50 shot to win. Great odds.

Russell Hantz (5-1): Along with Parvati, has best chance to win. Russell simply is a master at playing Survivor and he has an amazing way of manipulating his way through every threat. He got totally screwed in S19 on the surface but part of winning the game is being able to curry favor with the jury so that is something he needs to work on in order to go down as the best ever which is a title he will own if he wins here. Chances are he will piss off too many people and thus alienate the jury again but depending on who he goes into the final with, he just might be able to win it.

Randy Bailey (1000-1): I will get right to the point: Randy has absolutely NO CHANCE to win this game or any kind of Survivor period. His abrasiveness is an instant killer for him and he has absolutely no sense of how to play the game. He is nothing but a talking piece and I believe will be the first villain voted out unless a power play is in order. Move on from this car wreck.

Jerri Manthey (50-1): Jerri Manthey at the very least deserves a Lifetime Achievement Award. I think her reputation of being a villainess is overblown as she really hasn’t done anything that memorable or cringe worthy in the bitchy department. Jerri always gets to the middle portion of the game but stalls from there. I think more of the same will happen here but if she happens to get to the end, she may just get some votes due to her perseverance.

Courtney Yates (80-1): Courtney has a better chance of losing all of her 5 remaining pounds than winning Survivor. She is just downright annoying and she has no sense of the game. It was a total fluke when she made the final in China and she will be cut loose as soon as the villains lose a challenge and get rid of Randy.

"Coach" Wade (70-1): Coach is a great character no doubt about it. I am in the minority for sure regarding the fact I like his personality. He has underrated athleticism and will definitely make the merge due to his reputation of not being a big threat. Coach doesn’t have the ability to play the strategic part of the game and that will be his undoing. His closeness to Tyson and Jerri are also big negatives.

Tyson Apostol (200-1): Tyson is an idiot plain an simple. His act gets tiring by episode 2 and he too has no clue how to play the game. He is all talk and no action and the Speedo alone should get him voted off. Nothing to see here.

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