So we get our second go-around with the Redemption Island theme on this fall's Survivor South Pacific and the two returnees are "Coach" Ben Wade fresh off a new movie along with super athletic and porn star look-wannabe Ozzie Lusth. Both guys will look to replicate the Rob Mariano path to winning the million for the first time in their Survivor careers but will they get there? Lets handicap both of their chances from this very high peanut stand.
Coach: Coach goes for the glory again as he comes off his very bad performance in Heroes VS. Villains. In fact Coach was the pivitol figure in a bad way in that he threw his vote in the ultimate Rob VS. Russell tribal council where Rob got sent hom because of it. It was a gutless move by Coach not to take a stand and he was soon booted out with nary a whimper. In fact Coach had a much better showing of himself in Tocantins when he finished fifth as he got backstabbed by JT. Throughout all of his schenanigans and philosophies, Coach has proven to be a very good challenge competitior as evidenced by him literally carrying Colby Donaldson down the beach in the first challenge in Heroes VS. Villains. So really this is not the problem with Coach.
The big issue is that Coach has zero mind for the game. He doesnt strategize like a Boston Rob or a Russell who are constantly looking for ways to get ahead and stay in the game. Coach is not this type of player and unless he begins a new method of play this season, it figures to be his downfall again this season. Whats interesting is that his lack of game could actually help him stay around a bit. Also many view Coach as sort of a mascot who is around ot entertain with his crazy stories and so he should be able to avoid trouble out of the gate unlike with Rob and Russell who were under siege right off the bat. I can see Coach getting into an alliance that ditches him when the merge arrives or soon thereafter as he is too trusting and so I certainly dont see him pulling a Rob and going out in a blaze of glory.
Ozzie: Ozzie in my mind is going to have it a bit tougher right away due to his reputation as quite possibly the best challenge player ever. The fact he was blindsided in an all-time Survivor moment in Micronesia surely has stuck in his craw since and he is likely to come out aggressive with a take-no-prisoners attitude. It will either enable him to form a big time alliance that he can ride through the game or have him voted out right away like what happened with Russell. It could really go either way. I think everyone else will be wary of his challenge domination and so he will have a tough time getting to a merge unless he really woos a few people to his side in the first few days of the game.
Thats how I see it. Ultimately neither guy will win in my mind but if I had to choose I would say that I can see Ozzie winning more so than Coach. Let me know what you think about this.